Embargo on Russian oil

The EU has imposed a partial embargo on Russian oil. We have to admit, Europeans are fabulous idiots. The more the EU shows fierce political voluntarism, madness on the wave of chaotic restrictions and Russophobia, the worse the EU becomes. However, at the same time, Russia is rapidly getting rid of the West, and the funny thing is that Russia is not getting worse, at least not explicitly in the energy markets.

Let me explain the texture of idiocy. Russia supplied crude oil to the EU via the Druzhba pipeline and by sea (tankers) with a volume of 2.75 million barrels per day in 2020, about 2.6 million barrels per day in 2021 and about 2.4-2.5 million barrels per day from January 1 to February 24, 2022 .

Of these 2.4 million barrels per day, 800 thousand went through the pipeline and, accordingly, 1.5-1.6 million by sea, i.e. maritime exports account for 2/3 of crude oil exports to Europe. It is sea exports from Russia that they want to ban.

What happened after the NWO, i.e. after February 24?

Russia has increased exports (https://t.me/spydell_finance/1017) of crude oil by 350,000 barrels per day from February 25 to May 27 compared to the period from January 1 to February 24. But more significant changes occurred from April 1, when it was possible to establish supply channels to Asia, from that moment until May 27, oil exports increased by almost 600 thousand barrels.

At the same time, Russian oil exports to Europe decreased by more than 1 million barrels per day. India scooped up all this falling volume, China added on top, increasing supplies by an average of 300 thousand bbl / d, and about 180-200 thousand more are drifting in floating storage facilities in the Mediterranean Sea, waiting for future Asian buyers. Pot therefore increased supplies by 500-600 thousand barrels.

Now about 400 thousand barrels per day of oil remains from Russia to Europe by sea, even if this volume is reset to zero, total supplies will remain at the level as before the NWO. In this sense, it can be noted that Russia has almost got rid of Europe in terms of crude oil supplies, but not oil products.

In general, crude oil accounted for about 52-55% of deliveries in the structure of Russian exports and about 30-33% in the structure of European imports.

The former almost 2.7-2.8 million bbl / d of Russian oil is a lot. For comparison, from Africa Europe supplies about 2.2 million bbl/d, from the USA 1.2-1.3 million bbl/d, from Saudi Arabia 0.9-1 million bbl/d, other countries of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf in total about 1 million bbl/d , from the countries of the former USSR about 900 thousand bbl/d and other 700 thousand bbl/d. The diversification of oil supplies in Europe is better than in gas, but the dependence on Russia is huge.

In fact, Europe has already lost 1.1 million barrels of Russian oil. Who replaced it and what is the change in stocks? So far there is no answer. But there is an answer to another question. Against the backdrop of all this geopolitical fuss and the tyranny of European officials, the price of oil in Europe has risen to a maximum in history - 114 euros per barrel.

For comparison, at the peak in 2008 the price was about 90 euros and 95 euros in March 2012. It has never been higher than 100 euros! Everything has a price, with imports of 14 million bbl/d of oil and oil products and a doubling of the price in euros, Europe overpays over 280 billion euros a year on typical oil costs and more than 300 billion on top of gas costs.

After all, it should be noted that all this is man-made. The energy crisis (a record rise in prices + a shortage of energy in the domestic market with all the ensuing consequences) was created solely because of the boundless stupidity of European officials.

The second important point regarding the topic of the Russian oil embargo. The crazy European bureaucrats are clearly not aware of their actions, because the timing of the embargo was chosen the worst of all possible.

In July, the ECB turns off QE, and before that, the ECB bought over 4.2 trillion euros on the balance sheet from February 2020 to June 2022, which is more than double the accumulated budget deficit of the Eurozone countries. Low interest rates and the stability of the debt market are ensured by unlimited monetary emission, which overlaps the volume of public debt emission by several times. As long as the main buyer scoops up the entire volume of the new issue of public debt, the real rates on debt securities can be anything.

Since July, the printing press has been shut down, at the same time Europe is experiencing record inflationary pressures in 40-100 years (depending on the country), which is actually completely hitting the debt market. It is impossible to send a steady cash flow to the debt market in the face of expanding negative real rates. Capital will flee the debt markets.

At the same time, the strongest combined energy crisis, a food crisis, and soon a migration crisis on the wave of food riots and political destabilization in Africa are actualizing towards the end of 2022-beginning of 2023.

And what about Russia? And Russia is raking cash with shovels from stupid European bureaucrats so that it is already possible to “burn” it - the Russian financial system is torn from excess liquidity. We can't contain the strengthening of the ruble in any way.
While they have an energy and food crisis there, Russia sets records in terms of income from the export of raw materials, systematically redistributing flows to Asia and more than a surplus in key agricultural products.

By lighting the fuse of the energy crisis, European bureaucrats are driving inflation to a 100-year record, undermining the stability of the debt market and the entire financial system, and with it the economy. Who else here will say that they are “not fabulous idiots”?

Source: https://spydell.livejournal.com/728448.html