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EU - unprecedented trade deficit
How political and monetary cretinism creates problems where they could have been avoided.
The trade balance of the EU countries has become a record negative in the entire history of the existence of the EU countries - 28.5 billion euros in a month has never been. Monthly statistics since 1999, but quarterly trade balances since 1975 confirm an incredible trade deficit.
In January 2021, a record surplus was recorded against the backdrop of low commodity prices. The degradation began in March 2021, accelerated sharply from August 2021. In September 2021, the trade balance of the EU countries went negative for the first time since February 2012. Things got very bad in December 2021, when the deficit amounted to 20 billion euros per month (37.0 billion deficit for Q4 2021). But the worst was yet to come, for Q1 2022, 65.4 billion euros went into deficit.
The reason is the record acceleration of imports, over 4/5 in the structure of import growth is concentrated in raw materials, primarily gas and then oil with metals. Europe previously formed 80% of net purchases of US securities, the resource is a trade surplus.
Trade balance of the leading EU countries with the world. Deterioration on all fronts, the worst disposition in France and Poland, where the trade balance has become record negative. Germany has reduced its surplus by almost 5 times, Italy is entering a sustainable deficit since January 2022 for the first time in 10 years. Marked deterioration in Spain, surplus contraction in the Netherlands to a 15-year low.
EU countries are net importers of raw materials (oil, gas, coal, industrial, non-ferrous and precious metals, fertilizers, agricultural raw materials). The record acceleration in commodity prices predictably led to the collapse of the trade surplus into a record deficit. The dynamics of growth in prices for raw materials is synchronized with the contraction of the trade balance of the EU countries. Hell happened in the first quarter, but things will get worse in the second quarter.
Firstly, the average prices for raw materials in Q2 2022 are higher than Q1 2022, and secondly, the situation is worsened by the fall of the euro and the EU national currencies, which makes purchases even more expensive for the EU countries – by about 15%. There is very little left and soon everything will break through!