Who keeps the US resilient?

The US Treasury recently released the TIC report, which stated that there was a record inflow of capital into the US, but we need specific names – who is saving the US?

Of course, it won't work with specific names, but we managed to calculate cash flows by country. The US Treasury broke the long-term cash flow series, starting a "new life" from Feb. 23, so the sample is very limited.

The calculations will include net cash flow in treasuries in the amount for 12 months from Oct. 23 to Sep. 24 inclusive (now the stability of the treasury market is important in the context of an expanding budget deficit and a contraction of available liquidity).

Exchange rate revaluation (growth or fall of treasuries) is not taken into account and does not play any role, only net capital flows.

Over the past year, net cash flow into treasuries amounted to 585 billion, of which 285 billion came from Europe, among Europe in the EU-27 - 160.6 billion, and the Eurozone countries provided net purchases - 157.5 billion.

Among European countries, the leaders in the distribution of financial flows into treasuries were (over 3 billion per year):

• France – 95.3 billion

• Great Britain – 56.6 billion

• Norway – 40.6 billion

• Luxembourg (European offshore) – 37.6 billion

• Ireland (European offshore) – 20.4 billion

• Switzerland – 15 billion

• Netherlands – 12.9 billion

• Ukraine by the way – 9.4 billion

• Germany – 8.6 billion

• Spain – 6.1 billion

• Sweden – 4.5 billion

• Italy – 3.8 billion.

And the main seller in Europe was Belgium at 29.2 billion, but there is speculation that Chinese money was previously coming in through the Belgian financial gateways and is now leaving.

Among direct offshores, the largest buyers were the Caribbean - 126.4 billion, the Cayman Islands - 97.5 billion and the Bahamas - 16.4 billion.

In total, 253 billion came into Treasuries from all offshores, or more than 43% of the total net purchases of Treasuries.

Who else is supporting the Treasury market?

• Canada – 70 billion

• Singapore – 37.8 billion

• Hong Kong – 36.7 billion

• Taiwan – 36 billion

• Mexico – 23 billion

• Indonesia – 19 billion

• Australia – 16.1 billion

• South Korea – 15.9 billion

• Philippines – 14.3 billion

• International organizations – 12.4 billion

• Colombia – 8.3 billion (mostly drug money, as a purchase of US loyalty)

• Israel – 7.4 billion

• Other countries less than 5 billion.

OPEC oil exporters contributed only $11.5 billion to Treasuries in 12 months, and OPEC has not played a role in supporting Treasuries for more than a decade.

Who are the main sellers besides Belgium?

• China – sold $106 billion

• Japan – $43.2 billion

• India – $11.9 billion

• Chile – $8.5 billion

• South Africa – $2.4 billion

• Poland – $1.5 billion

• All other net sellers sold $1.5 billion

Now the proportion has become clear - 43% comes from offshore and almost half from Europe. Also updated data on key and most loyal US allies (no surprises). OPEC has been off the scene for more than 10 years, also no surprises.

Why is Japan selling so actively? We need to look deeper and evaluate the balance of payments, there is no answer yet. Sales from China are logical, and there are questions with India (previously they were buyers).

As for the net flow into shares, here is very brief. Over the year, only 49 billion came, of which 247 billion came from Europe, another +64 billion from offshore, and the largest sellers were: Canada - 273 billion, China - 24 billion and Japan for 18 billion.

Source: https://spydell.livejournal.com/792642.html