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The gas crisis in Europe flares up with renewed vigor
The gas crisis in Europe flares up with renewed vigor. Freeport LNG (operator of one of the largest U.S. LNG plants) said the plant will remain inactive until September 2022 due to a fire last week, with a gradual recovery through the end of the year.
This plant provides about 20% of US LNG production - approximately 22-23 billion cubic meters per year. Why does this information matter?
About 70% of supplies from this terminal went to Europe on average over the past 3 months, or about 15-16 billion cubic meters in annual terms. In 2022, the US supplied Europe with up to 21 billion cubic meters of gas in the 1st quarter of 2022, reducing supplies to 18 billion cubic meters over the past three months. Freeport LNG accounts for 20-25% of all LNG supplies from the US to Europe.
The average share of LNG exports from the US to Europe in 2018 is 13%, in 2019 and 2020 - 36%, in 2021 - 33%, in 2022 - almost 72%! At the same time, the United States now occupies almost 2/3 of all LNG supplied to Europe.
Thus, Europe is losing about 4 billion cubic meters of gas from the US - that's for sure. It will not work to increase from other terminals, everything works to the limit.
At the same time, there was news that Gazprom was reducing pumping through Nord Stream by 40%.
I'll give you the actual data.
▪️ 167-170 million cubic meters were pumped through the Nord Stream, now there will be 100 million cubic meters.
▪️About 100 million cubic meters were pumped through the GTS of Ukraine, now 40 million cubic meters.
▪️We exported 40 million cubic meters through Turkish Stream, now 20 million cubic meters.
▪️In the best years, 100 million cubic meters were pumped through Yamal-Europe, recently 35 million cubic meters, and now exactly zero!
Last year, Gazprom's typical average deliveries to Europe were 3.1 bcm per week. From May 11 to June 10, 2022, supplies fell by 60% in 2022 relative to 2021.
After the partial shutdown of the Nord Stream, about 1.1 billion cubic meters per week will be pumped (100 + 40 + 20 + 0 million cubic meters per day) - this is THREE times lower than the not very successful 2021 and losses of up to 2 billion cubic meters per week .
Thus, Europe will lose up to 1.3 billion cubic meters per month of LNG shortages and up to 8 billion cubic meters minus from Gazprom, which exceeds 110 billion cubic meters per annum.
It seems that the plan to fill gas storage facilities by the winter period is covered - it's time to introduce new sanctions! ))